Monthly Flight Patterns

02. Monthly Flight Patterns Comparative Analysis: 2025 vs 2026 & February Growth Projection Note: Flight counts based on departure statistics. Growth Projection model based on historical 5-year trend analysis. Global Monthly Business Jet Departures & Year-over-Year Growth Projection

240K 248K 256K 264K 272K 280K 288K 296K 304K 312K 320K -5% 0% +5% +10% 2025 Departures 2026 Actual Departures Actual YoY Growth % (Jan) Projected YoY Growth % (Feb) Total Volume & Projection: January 2026 recorded 263,595 global business jet departures, representing a modest +0.56% YoY increase over January 2025's 262,122 flights. As the first month of 2026, this establishes the opening baseline for the year. Based on historical trend analysis, February 2026 is projected at approximately +0.5% YoY growth, suggesting continued mild positive momentum into early Q1.

Monthly Performance: January recorded 263,595 departures, a modest +0.56% YoY gain compared to January 2025. On a month-over-month basis, January declined -9.42% from December 2025's 291,024 departures — a typical seasonal dip following the year-end holiday period when corporate and leisure aviation activity subsides.

Growth Dynamics: The modest YoY growth suggests market stabilization after 2025's strong expansion cycle. January traditionally represents the weakest month of the year as corporate travel resumes gradually after winter holidays. The near-flat growth rate signals a normalization phase rather than a contraction,

consistent with expectations for a maturing post-recovery market environment. The full-year 2025 delivered 3,489,813 total flights, and January 2026's near-flat YoY performance suggests a normalized growth environment following 2025's robust annual performance.

Market Context: With only January actual data available, the chart's remaining 2026 columns represent pending months. The February forecast suggests continued mild positive trajectory. The dashed projection line from January to February reflects the early-year expectation of gradual acceleration through Q1. Stakeholders should monitor February actuals for confirmation of the projected growth path.

Seasonal Patterns: January's sequential decline from December follows well-established historical patterns. The aviation sector transitions from year-end peak activity into the traditional Q1 trough. Historical data suggests a February-March recovery as corporate calendars resume and business travel demand rebuilds. The 2025 baseline months ahead show increasing volumes through the spring and summer, setting up favorable comparisons if 2026 follows a similar seasonal trajectory.