Monthly Flight Patterns

02. Monthly Flight Patterns Comparative Analysis: 2025 vs 2026 & March Growth Projection Note: Flight counts based on departure statistics. Growth Projection model based on historical 5-year trend analysis. Global Monthly Business Jet Departures & Year-over-Year Growth Projection

200K 212K 224K 236K 248K 260K 272K 284K 296K 308K 320K -20% -10% 0% +10% 2025 Departures 2026 Actual Departures Actual YoY Growth % (Jan-Feb) Projected YoY Growth % (Mar) Total Volume & Projection: February 2026 recorded 211,153 global business jet departures, representing a sharp -16.51% YoY decline compared to February 2025's 252,909 flights. Combined with January's 264,992 departures, Q1 2026 cumulative volume stands at 476,145 flights. Based on historical trend analysis, March 2026 is projected at approximately +0.5% YoY growth, suggesting potential recovery from February's pronounced contraction.

Monthly Performance: February recorded 211,153 departures, a -20.32% sequential decline from January 2026's 264,992 flights. The daily average of 7,541 flights across 28 operational days represents the lowest daily throughput in the 14-month tracking window, well below January's 8,548 daily average and significantly under the 2025 monthly average of approximately 9,133 daily flights.

Growth Dynamics: The -16.51% YoY contraction represents the steepest monthly decline in the current tracking period. Since both February 2026 and February 2025 contained 28 calendar days, calendar effects are eliminated as a contributing factor. The sequential -20.32% MoM contraction significantly exceeds

the typical January-to-February pattern, which historically shows modest 2-5% sequential improvement rather than decline, indicating that February's weakness extends beyond normal seasonal dynamics. Market Context: With January and February actuals now available, the chart positions remaining 2026 months as pending data. The March forecast projects near-prior-year levels, reflecting the expectation that February's pronounced weakness will partially reverse as seasonal demand strengthens. The dashed projection line from February to March illustrates the anticipated recovery trajectory toward normalized YoY growth.

Seasonal Patterns: February's weakness contrasts with historical norms where the month typically registers modest sequential improvement over January as corporate travel calendars resume. The 2025 baseline shows consistently elevated volumes from March through November, with October 2025 peaking at 313,171 departures. Stakeholders should monitor March actuals closely for confirmation of whether February's contraction represents a transient disruption or signals a more sustained demand recalibration entering 2026.