📉 Manila Business Aviation Demand Accelerates Decline, Departures Down Nearly 80%
Manila's business aviation contraction has shifted from "significant decline" to "structural hemorrhage." Avi-Go data shows RPLL recorded 201 business jet movements in March 2026, down 52.1% from 420 in March 2025. In the first five days of April 2026, the decline deepened to 64.2%, with only 24 movements logged. More alarming is the directional imbalance: 16 arrivals vs. 8 departures in early April, down 48.4% and 77.8% year-over-year respectively — indicating aircraft are still arriving but generating almost no return demand, leaving the market effectively one-directional.
Implications: Q1 2026 business aviation movements across four Southeast Asian markets fell only 3.57% year-over-year (10,694 vs. 11,090), making Manila's collapse a regional outlier rather than a broad trend. This points to an independent demand problem in the Philippines that cannot be obscured by regional aggregates. For brokers with regular Philippine operations, empty-leg return costs will continue eroding margins.
Recommendations: Operators should remodel RPLL route P&L within April 2026, incorporating empty-leg rates into pricing. If the May 2026 decline does not narrow to within 40%, suspend dedicated capacity allocation and shift to on-demand dispatch.