✈️ Gulf hub movements collapse over 85%, Muscat captures rerouted traffic against the trend
Avi-Go data shows that from March to May 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz combined with the jet fuel crisis drove business jet movements at Dubai OMDB down over 90%, averaging only about 7 movements per week after the ceasefire—far below the pre-ceasefire level of 41. Doha OTHH dropped to near zero, while Jeddah and Dammam fell about 21.9% year-on-year from January to May. Meanwhile, Oman's Muscat OOMS recorded 377 movements in March to April, more than tripling from 102 in the same period last year, becoming a rerouting transit pivot. Jordan's Amman OJAI showed an inverted-V pattern from April to June (41→76→43 movements), with the share of long-haul segments plummeting from 10.5% in April to 0% in May and June, reflecting forced interruptions to long-range missions. U.S. Jet-A rose to about $4.19 per gallon over the same period (+67.6%), with small and medium operators generally under pressure due to a lack of fuel hedging.
Impact: The collapse in traffic at traditional Gulf hubs is forcing operators to restructure their transit and refueling networks, with nodes such as Muscat, Tbilisi, and Baku absorbing overflow demand. Long-haul segments are being compressed, capacity to execute long-range business missions is significantly constrained, and rising fuel costs are further squeezing the profit margins of small and medium operators.
Recommendation: Operators should complete refueling agreements and ground service backup contracts for alternative hubs such as Muscat and Baku before July 2026, and lock in third-quarter fuel hedging positions to mitigate Jet-A price volatility. They should simultaneously evaluate multi-segment rerouting under ESCAT airspace control and reserve longer mission windows.