✈️ LLBG Near-Paralyzed by War, HESH Emerges as Regional Emergency Hub
Avi-Go data shows that following the outbreak of the Iran-Israel war on February 28, 2026, daily business aviation movements at Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) plummeted from a pre-war average of 19.1 to 4.4, a single-month decline of 76.8%. In absolute terms, LLBG recorded only 63 departures in March, compared to 271 in January and 245 in February — effectively near-shutdown. Meanwhile, daily movements at Egypt's Sharm el-Sheikh Airport (HESH) surged from 0.57 to 2.12, up 270.2%, with 37 departures in March versus 20 in January and 13 in February — making it the most significant beneficiary node of this conflict.
📊 Evacuation Signal: Departures Far Outpace Arrivals, HESH Absorbs One-Way Outflow
HESH recorded 37 departures and 18 arrivals in March, a roughly 2:1 departure-to-arrival ratio — a structural imbalance typical of large-scale evacuation operations, where personnel and assets move outward rather than in normal two-way business flows. In terms of route network, HESH's primary destinations concentrated on Eastern Mediterranean and Gulf nodes such as Athens, Istanbul, and Muscat — traditional diversion hubs for business aviation emergencies in the Middle East — further confirming HESH's hub role in this crisis. By contrast, Jordan's Aqaba (OJAQ) posted 88.5% growth but only 7 absolute movements in March, making its contribution to absorbing overflow demand negligible.
🏢 Operator Landscape: LLBG Highly Concentrated, HESH Shows Emergency Diversification
LLBG's market structure shifted fundamentally in March. Arrow Aviation Ltd. dominated with 18 movements and a 28.6% share; all named operators combined contributed 29 movements (46.0%), with the remainder scattered across smaller or unnamed activity. This concentration indicates that under wartime conditions, only a handful of operators with special credentials or local resources remained active. HESH presented a contrasting picture: Spot Air led with 5 movements (13.5%), followed by Avcon Jet AG with 4 (10.8%), and several others contributing 3 each — a more fragmented base reflecting the reality of emergency evacuations being handled by multiple international operators.
💼 Implications
HESH has rapidly transitioned from a marginal leisure destination to a regional business aviation emergency hub, placing unprecedented pressure on its ground handling capacity. Ramp availability, fuel supply, customs clearance efficiency, and FBO service capacity will directly determine whether this alternative hub can sustain overflow demand. For brokers, evacuation missions and diplomatic shuttle flights near conflict zones carry strong time sensitivity and significantly higher pricing leverage than routine charter — the pricing window is open. However, HESH's fragmented operator base with no single dominant player introduces uncertainty in service quality and coordination; high-net-worth clients and corporate security teams should conduct additional due diligence on operators' actual handling track records at this airport.
📋 Recommendations
Operators and brokers with Middle East exposure should prioritize securing ramp slots and fuel reservations at HESH within the next 4–8 weeks, particularly while the conflict persists. Given the structural 2:1 departure-to-arrival imbalance, empty-leg return rates are elevated — brokers should consider pairing repositioning legs with new evacuation missions to reduce per-trip costs and improve overall yield. Additionally, monitor LLBG recovery signals closely: a rebound in daily movements above 10 can be treated as a leading indicator of conflict de-escalation, at which point regional resource allocation should be adjusted accordingly.