🌍 High Fuel Prices Fail to Dampen Late-Season Caribbean Demand
In March 2026, global jet fuel prices surged from $96 to $197 per barrel, sharply raising operating costs. Yet the Caribbean's two major bizav hubs — St. Maarten TNCM and Cayman Islands MWCR — posted double-digit year-over-year growth over the same period. Avi-Go data shows TNCM March movements rose 9.9% YoY from 972 to 1,068 operations; MWCR grew 12.6% from 787 to 886; combined YoY growth reached 11.1%. This growth against a backdrop of doubled fuel costs directly demonstrates the near-zero price elasticity of the Caribbean luxury charter market — pricing signals have negligible impact on this clientele's behavior.
📈 Monthly Trend: Brief February Dip Followed by Strong March Rebound
Avi-Go monthly data further reveals this market's seasonal rhythm. Combined departures from TNCM and MWCR reached 333 in January 2026, dipped to 285 in February (-14.4% MoM on seasonal factors), then rebounded strongly to 315 in March (+10.5% MoM) on spring break demand. By airport: TNCM departures were 205 in January, 166 in February, and 176 in March; MWCR posted 128, 119, and 139 respectively. This V-shaped pattern closely tracks the vacation cycle of high-net-worth clients on the US East Coast, with the spring break window as the primary catalyst for March's recovery.
💼 Aircraft Mix & Origin Markets: Super-Midsize Dominates, East Coast Cities Lead
The dominant aircraft serving Caribbean routes are super-midsize jets — notably the Challenger 300/350, Citation X, and Citation Latitude. This reflects the typical 2–3 hour stage length from the US East Coast to Caribbean islands, where super-midsize jets strike the optimal balance of range, cabin comfort, and operating economics. Key departure cities include Miami, Fort Lauderdale, New York, and West Palm Beach — all core high-net-worth markets. Notably, rising geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East may be redirecting some discretionary travel from that region to the Caribbean — a potential shift in origin-market composition worth monitoring.
✅ Recommendation: Brokers Should Implement Fuel Surcharge Increases Now to Capture Late-Season Pricing Window
For charter brokers and operators serving Caribbean routes, this is the optimal moment to execute fuel surcharge increases. Before the peak season closes in April, we recommend raising fuel surcharges on super-midsize Caribbean routes by 15–25% to offset the cost impact of doubled fuel prices while testing clients' actual payment ceiling. Given that YoY growth at TNCM and MWCR has confirmed demand resilience, this adjustment is well-supported by current market conditions. FBO operators should simultaneously assess ground handling capacity at both airports, prioritizing ramp access and fueling priority for super-midsize aircraft during peak periods to maximize per-turn revenue.