Atlantic Tropical Wave Exits Africa with Moderate Development Chances; Typhoon Saudel at 110 Knots

Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue reported a new African tropical wave expected to become a depression by mid-week, while Invest 95L carries a 50% development chance and Typhoon Saudel holds 110-knot intensity.

Original report
weather.substack.com

Industry impact

Multiple simultaneous storm threats across the Atlantic and Western Pacific raise the possibility of disrupted flight routing and airport operations in the affected coastal regions over the coming days.

As of Sunday evening, August 23, 2026, Day 84 of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue reported several active tropical systems across multiple ocean basins. In the Atlantic, a major tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa and is expected to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week over the Main Development Region, with forecasters monitoring it over the next 10 days. A separate system, Invest 95L, located in the central subtropical Atlantic east of the mainland United States, carries a 50% chance of development and could become named Dolly, with some ensemble model members showing intense development near the Southeast U.S. coast by Day 10.

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Saudel is maintaining 110-knot intensity, near Category 4 strength, with a well-defined eye, and is forecast to turn west and then southwest before making landfall in China later in the week as a weakened system. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Iselle is expected to intensify into a hurricane but will stay well away from land through its 5-day forecast period.

Dr. Maue's April 2026 Atlantic seasonal forecast called for 9-13 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes, with an ACE of 75-85, well below normal.